Articles

Is Venezuela on the Path to Democracy? Here’s What to Look For

Seven key factors will determine whether Venezuela ultimately transitions to democracy, remains captive to a Chavista dictatorship, or descends into chaos. Coauthored with Homer Harkins. National Interest, 18 January 2026. https://nationalinterest.org/feature/is-venezuela-on-the-path-to-democracy-heres-what-to-look-for

Understanding Resistance and Mobilization in Mexico

Beyond the 2025 Gen-Z Contestation of Cartel-Led Governance. El Centro, 22 December 2025. https://smallwarsjournal.com/2025/12/22/understanding-resistance-and-mobilization-in-mexico-beyond-the-2025-gen-z-contestation-of-cartel-led-governance/

Issue in Doubt – The Geostrategic Alignment of Africa: What the Trans-Sahel Gas Pipeline Project Exposes

As the African Sahel attempts to address endemic challenges of climate change, intrastate conflict, and human insecurity, the continent as a whole also sits at a crucial inflection point in its geostrategic alignment. Recently, in 2024 and 2025, Egypt, Nigeria, and Ethiopia joined South Africa in the Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS) consortium. With the ejection of French and U.S. forces from West Africa in 2024, the growing use of Russia’s Africa Corps for security provisioning, and heavy infrastructure and mining investments from China, some countries in Africa appear to be leaving the Western diplomatic orbit and moving decidedly east. Journal of Strategic Competition, coming soon.

Indexing the Power of Alliances

Measuring alliance power, especially in international relations, involves understanding multi-dimensional strength through data-centric analysis, which this model does through a 15 indicator set which spans across a nation's capabilities for aggression, learning, yield, and statesmanship (ALYS index). Data Commons, 9 December 2025. https://data.mendeley.com/datasets/s2szmw7gk2/1

Benchmarking the Power of Terrorist Organizations in Latin America

This working paper by myself and Manuel Carranza explores the influence of ten foreign terrorist organization in Latin America with metric-based analysis. This study underscores the complexity of transnational criminal organizations and their significant impact on regional stability, while also contributing to the broader understanding of nonstate power dynamics in a global context. Finally, this paper provides policy recommendations to counter the influence of Latin American FTOs and provide regional stabilization. Knowledge Commons, 3 November 2025. https://works.hcommons.org/records/exmve-ezy20#description-heading

What does the Red dragon fear?

Assessing Resistance in China. This article was published in the Irregular Warfare Center's PRISM journal on 15 September 2025. https://irregularwarfarecenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2025-11-1.pdf

Why Coalitions Matter in Strategic Competition

This article evaluates the role of coalitions in U.S. grand strategy, and how American partnerships provide it a decisive advantage in global competition. Journal of Strategic Competition, 1 July 2025. https://works.hcommons.org/records/3azhe-5g795

Inside the flames: Two years of Civil war in sudan

Over the past two years of fighting in Sudan, the nation’s economy has collapsed, and millions of its citizens have been displaced. The violence continues unabated, despite dire warnings by the United Nations and the African Union about a mounting humanitarian crisis. While most of the world remain spectators, a few important external actors maintain essential support to the belligerents. Small Wars Journal, 8 July 2025. https://smallwarsjournal.com/2025/07/08/inside-the-flames-two-years-of-civil-war-in-sudan/

Resolving a 75-year-old Civil War in Myanmar: While Securing the World’s Largest Source of RARE EARTHS

The conflict in Myanmar is the world’s longest ongoing civil war. Dr. Chris Mason and I team up on this article to propose a radically innovative U.S. foreign policy in Myanmar. National Interest, 1 July 2024. https://nationalinterest.org/feature/americas-relationship-with-myanmar-is-deeply-flawed